European apple production down 16%; early Italian harvest, Portugal expects normal crop
European apple production for 2026 is forecast at 9.5 million tonnes, 16% below 2025, with Italy and Germany reporting lower yields and Portugal largely unaffected by heatwaves.
According to Prognosfruit estimates, total apple production in Europe for 2026 is projected at 9.5 million tonnes, representing a decrease of 1.76 million tonnes (16%) compared to 2025 and a 14% drop versus the three-year average. This is the lowest European apple crop in nine years, with major declines reported in Germany, Hungary, and Italy. In Italy, the harvest started about ten days earlier than usual in Trentino due to exceptional heat, with the Gala variety already being picked since August 7. Italian production is forecast at 2,269,106 tonnes, down 2% from 2025. Regional production is also lower, with Alto Adige expecting 1,034,690 tonnes (-2%) and Trentino 471,000 tonnes (-9%).
The lower European harvest is expected to tighten supply and intensify competition among exporters. Portugal anticipates a normal crop with good color and firmness, having avoided the severe heatwaves that affected other European producers. Portuguese exporters are planning to focus initially on Asian markets but remain flexible regarding European and Middle Eastern demand, depending on shipping conditions and market dynamics. Investments in packing technology in Portugal are expected to improve grading and export quality.
In Germany, the market for fruit and vegetables continues to operate smoothly, with steady summer consumption and balanced prices in major wholesale markets such as Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, and Berlin. The presence of Spanish and Mediterranean produce remains strong in German fruit assortments, supported by the staggered arrival of local and imported harvests. However, German apple production is reported to be lower, which may influence sourcing from other European suppliers, including Poland.
Hungary is also facing its lowest apple harvest in a decade, increasing the likelihood of higher imports from neighboring countries. The Netherlands, which had a surplus in 2025, is expected to see lower apple and pear inventories this year, possibly raising export demand from other EU countries.
Industrial apple prices in Poland, which is an important importer and exporter in the region, have declined in recent weeks. On August 10, 2026, Polish industrial apple prices ranged from €0.14 to €0.15/kg (PLN 0.60–0.65/kg), reflecting weaker demand and increased supply from cold storage. This price trend may be influenced by reduced harvests and tighter supply in other European countries.
Material prepared by the editorial team of fresh-market.info, editor Artur Spiker · Illustrative image generated by AI