The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) unveiled its highly anticipated forecast for the 2026/2027 season

At this year's Prognosfruit Conference in Constance, Germany (5–7 August 2026), the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) unveiled its highly anticipated forecast for the 2026/2027 season. EU apple production is estimated to fall by 15.6% to 9,496,047 tonnes, while the pear crop is expected to grow by 5.5% to 1,946,482 tonnes. Among the top producers, Poland faces the sharpest decline – down 29.9%.

The Prognosfruit Conference, organised by WAPA with the support of BVEO (the German fruit and vegetable producers' organisation), is Europe's leading forum for the apple and pear sector. This year's edition is a special one – the event returns to Germany, commemorating 50 years of uninterrupted editions first held in this region in 1976. More than 200 delegates from across Europe, as well as the USA, China and the Southern Hemisphere, are attending the 3-day event.

Apples: EU crop among the lowest in years

Based on the first estimate, apple production in the EU's top-producing countries in 2026 is set at 9,496,047 tonnes, which is 15.6% below last year's final figure. This year's crop is also 14.3% below the average of the previous three years.

Poland remains the EU's largest apple producer with a share of around 28% of the EU crop, but the 2026 forecast stands at just 2,665 thousand tonnes – 29.9% less than a year earlier and 27.1% below the 3-year average. Deep declines are also expected in France (1,162 thousand t, -24.2%) and Germany (1,013 thousand t, -10.9%). Italy, the EU's second-largest producer, will keep production almost unchanged (2,269 thousand t, -2.2%). Increases are forecast in Greece (+53.6%) and Spain (+7.5%), among others.

EU apple production by country (1,000 tonnes)

Source: WAPA, Prognosfruit 2026. Data in 1,000 tonnes.

Apple varieties: declines across almost all groups

Production of Golden Delicious, the EU's largest variety, is set to shrink by 11.1% to 1,809,982 tonnes. Gala, the second-largest variety, is expected to decrease by 8.9% to 1,362,797 tonnes. Red Delicious (496,522 t, -5.3%) and Idared (415,559 t, -19.7%) will also fall. Very sharp declines are forecast for varieties important to Polish growers: Ligol (-35.0%), Red Jonaprince (-37.7%), Jonagored (-33.0%), Jonagold (-27.4%) and Shampion (-21.9%). Only new club varieties (+9.4%) and Fuji (+0.6%) are on the rise.

EU apple production by variety (1,000 tonnes)

Source: WAPA, Prognosfruit 2026. Data in 1,000 tonnes. Varieties above 90 thousand tonnes shown, plus aggregates.

A tough season for growers: weather and rising costs

The drop in apples reflects growing pressure on growers from an increasingly complex growing business environment and extreme weather conditions, which are both having a direct and measurable impact on yields across the continent.

"This year's figures are a strong reminder that production cannot be taken for granted. We may be reaching the limits of what current tools and practices can absorb for the competitiveness of the sector, with production and yields impacted by climate events, rising costs and shrinking toolbox to secure yields and quality" – said Philippe Binard, WAPA General Secretary, when presenting the forecast.

"Political support has not kept pace with the speed at which climate change is affecting our orchards, and other growers are facing increasing constraints to respond. This is not just a question of yield; it's a question of competitiveness, and ultimately of food security. Food sovereignty in Europe demands giving growers the conditions they need to produce, including stronger incentives and a framework for reinforcing cooperation among growers" – added Luc Vanoirbeek, Chair of the COPA-COGECA Working Party on Fruit and Vegetables.

This year, climatic conditions have been a perfect storm in different growing places – from deep February frosts to late April, prolonged heat waves and drought, punctual hailstorms and heavy rains. As Prognosfruit is taking place, several production areas are still impacted by adverse temperature and drought conditions. WAPA will continue monitoring its forecast data and assess evolving conditions with its members.

Pears: EU production to grow by 5.5%

In contrast to apples, the EU pear crop for 2026 is estimated to grow by 5.5% to 1,946,482 tonnes. The total volume is also 9.9% above the 3-year average, but remains below the orchard potential. Italy's production is expected to increase by 17.4% to 347,325 tonnes, the Dutch estimates are 9.6% higher, and Poland is up 18.2% to 130 thousand tonnes. Belgium's pear forecast, on the contrary, is 7.2% below last season. Production of Conference, the EU's dominant variety, is estimated at 905,693 tonnes (+2.1%), while William BC should increase by 1.1% to 211,606 tonnes.

EU pear production by country (1,000 tonnes)

Source: WAPA, Prognosfruit 2026. Data in 1,000 tonnes. Countries below 10 thousand tonnes omitted.

EU pear production by variety (1,000 tonnes)

Source: WAPA, Prognosfruit 2026. Data in 1,000 tonnes. Varieties above 20 thousand tonnes shown, plus aggregates.

Northern Hemisphere outlook and next edition

The lower apple crop is also recorded in other places in the Northern Hemisphere, namely in the UK, the USA and India. China's first forecast indicates stability compared to last year, while Turkey is recovering production after the damages experienced last year.

Prognosfruit's journey will continue next year on 3–5 August 2027 in Zagreb, Croatia.

Source: press release by WAPA – World Apple and Pear Association, Prognosfruit 2026, Constance, 6 August 2026.