EU apple crop drops to 9-year low, supply tightens in 2026/27
The 2026/27 European apple crop is forecast at 9.5 million tonnes, down 15.6% year-on-year and the lowest in nine years, due to weather extremes across the continent.
According to the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) presented at Prognosfruit 2026 in Germany, the EU apple harvest is expected at 9,496,047 tonnes, a decrease of 1.76 million tonnes compared to 2025 and 14% below the three-year average. This marks the smallest crop since 2017, primarily due to spring frosts, drought, and floods affecting major producers. Italy, the second-largest EU supplier, limits its decline to 2%, with a forecast of 2.25–2.27 million tonnes, maintaining its capacity to supply both European and extra-EU markets. France is set to harvest 1.16 million tonnes (-24%), Germany 1.01 million tonnes (-11%), Belgium 166,000 tonnes (-25%), and the Netherlands 200,000 tonnes (-17%). Austria expects a severe drop to 90,000 tonnes (-35%). The largest decreases are seen in Poland, France, and Belgium, tightening EU-wide availability and likely impacting import needs.
The main apple varieties in the EU are all affected: Golden Delicious production is estimated at 1,810,000 tonnes (-11.1% y/y), Gala at 1,363,000 tonnes (-8.9%), Red Delicious at 497,000 tonnes (-5.3%), and Idared at 416,000 tonnes (-19.7%). Organic apple production is forecast to fall 13%, with Italy remaining the leading supplier. WAPA notes that average fruit sizes are smaller in several countries due to adverse weather. The reduced EU crop is expected to support prices, though no specific wholesale or export price figures for the 2026/27 season have been published as of early August.
On overseas markets, Australia is also facing tight apple supplies following a hot, dry spring in 2025, which reduced yields and led to a 30–40% rise in apple prices compared to the previous year. As of August, Australian retail apple prices are up more than 13% year-on-year, with average prices exceeding €3.20/kg (converted from AUD). The supply shortage in Australia is expected to persist into early 2027, limiting export opportunities from that market and keeping global availability tight.
Outside Europe, the Philippines remains a fully import-driven market for apples, with annual imports exceeding 110,000 tonnes. Over 90% of Philippine apple imports originate from China, with smaller shares from the USA and New Zealand. The opening of the Philippine market to new EU suppliers could increase competition, but China is expected to maintain its dominance. Philippine domestic demand is growing moderately as incomes rise, but per capita consumption remains low at about 1 kg per year.
The supply shortfall in Western and Central Europe is attributed to extreme weather, including late spring frosts, drought, and floods, which significantly reduced yields and fruit size. The reduced EU crop may increase demand for imports from non-European sources, potentially affecting prices and supply options for buyers in Poland and across Europe.
Material prepared by the editorial team of fresh-market.info, editor Artur Spiker · Illustrative image generated by AI