French and British apple harvests near five-year averages, Ukrainian prices forecast to fall
France and the UK expect apple harvests close to five-year averages, while Ukrainian market participants predict a decline in wholesale apple prices for the 2026/27 season.
According to forecasts, the French 2026 apple crop is expected to reach approximately 1.52 million tonnes, which is 5% lower than the previous year but in line with the 2021–2025 average. The decline is mainly due to the alternation effect following a bumper 2025 harvest and weather-related issues such as March frosts and June heatwaves. Most French production regions report stable or slightly reduced yields, with Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA) likely to see a 2% increase, while Occitanie anticipates a 12% decrease compared to 2025. Fruit growth has been slowed by high temperatures, but over 80% of French orchards are irrigated, limiting the impact of drought on overall supply.
In the United Kingdom, industry body British Apples & Pears (BAPL) reports that the 2026 apple harvest is expected to be close to the five-year average, with good supply continuity projected well into 2027. Despite some hail and frost causing cosmetic defects, eating quality is described as excellent due to the warm, dry weather and gradual ripening conditions. Retailers are preparing for a dependable domestic supply, with some flexibility in cosmetic standards discussed for affected batches.
On the Ukrainian market, a survey among apple sector stakeholders points to predominantly bearish price expectations for the 2026/27 season. 43% of respondents expect wholesale prices to decline, with 25% forecasting a drop of 11–20% and 14% anticipating a decrease of more than 21%. The anticipated price pressure is attributed to a significant increase in the Ukrainian apple harvest, higher export costs via sea, and larger crops in Moldova and Türkiye. In the previous season, Ukrainian apples fetched at least 25% higher prices at harvest than after long-term storage, but prices fell steadily from January to June, which is atypical for the market.
Moldova continues to invest in modern orchard technology, with companies like Elit-Fruct operating super-intensive apple orchards and adopting integrated management systems. The country is focusing on quality and efficiency improvements to remain competitive in export markets, including the EU and neighboring regions.
The trade situation in these countries affects Poland as a major importer and competitor, especially given the expected increase in Ukrainian and Moldovan apple supply and the stable harvests in Western Europe. Lower Ukrainian prices and solid Western European availability are likely to intensify competition and influence wholesale prices in the Polish market.
Material prepared by the editorial team of fresh-market.info, editor Artur Spiker · Illustrative image generated by AI