USDA halts Michoacán avocado exports, global supply faces short-term uncertainty
The USDA has temporarily suspended all avocado export operations in Michoacán, Mexico as of August 5, 2026, raising concerns about short-term supply disruptions in key markets.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has stopped all official activities related to avocado exports in Michoacán, Mexico, following a security alert issued by the US Embassy. This region supplies approximately 75-80% of Mexican avocados exported to the United States and is a major supplier to Europe during the off-season for local production. For now, only fruit processed in the presence of a USDA official on August 4 is cleared for export; no new shipments are authorized. If the suspension persists, delays in shipments and possible shortfalls in supply are anticipated, potentially impacting European importers, including Poland.
On the global market, avocado exports have continued to expand, reaching over 3.3 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season, up from 730,000 tons in 2010/11. Mexico and Peru remain the largest exporters, followed by Kenya, Spain, Colombia, and South Africa. Rabobank forecasts further growth in global avocado supply for the 2026/27 season, but the developing El Niño phenomenon increases uncertainty about production volumes and fruit sizes, which could affect seasonal availability and pricing in Europe.
New Zealand's avocado exports declined by 9% in 2025/26 to 3.445 million trays, with a notable shift away from Australia and increased focus on Asian markets. Exports to South Korea rose 70% to 625,000 trays, and shipments to China, Hong Kong, and India nearly doubled, reducing the volume available for Europe. Spanish avocado production in the Axarquía region is ongoing, but local studies highlight the crop's vulnerability to rising temperatures and water scarcity, which could affect medium-term supply reliability.
Demand in mature European markets is stabilizing, while rapid growth continues in emerging Asian markets, intensifying global competition for available volumes. The dual-speed dynamic in consumption may affect pricing and sourcing decisions for EU importers, including those in Poland, especially if disruptions in Mexican supply persist or if adverse weather impacts production in Spain or other Mediterranean suppliers.
The research by Universidad de La Laguna warns that the Canary Islands' reliance on avocados leaves its agriculture vulnerable to climate change, which could reduce future output. Diversification and improved water management are being considered to mitigate these risks.
Material prepared by the editorial team of fresh-market.info, editor Artur Spiker · Illustrative image generated by AI