Will there be demand for domestic new potatoes in Poland?

The 2021/2022 season proved to be significantly better than the previous season in terms of Polish potato prices. Now in its final period, the season is bringing prices at the large wholesale level that are only lower than those of two of the previous ten years. This can be seen in the chart below.

Current prices for potatoes from the 2021 harvest are most often at the level of PLN 0.80-1.07/kg for yellow and red potatoes and PLN 0.87-1.20/kg for white potatoes. Prices depend on quality, calibre and variety, as well as on the region.

Nevertheless, it is difficult to be overly optimistic about the current situation if we consider how much the economic reality has changed, particularly the level of production costs. This creates great uncertainty as to how profitable production will be in the new season. But also about what will happen to quality if producers are forced to reduce fertilisation and protection. On the other hand, one has to ask how the inevitable price rise will affect demand in the vegetable sector, including demand for domestic potatoes?

These questions also apply to early potatoes. And just locally, domestic early potatoes from under high cover have appeared in the small wholesale trade. Prices are at last year's level of PLN 10.00/kg (that's higher than two years ago, when they were from PLN 7.50/kg). It is clear that prices will fall quickly in May, but they are likely to remain higher than in previous seasons.

Especially as there is one favourable factor - higher prices for imported early potatoes. Last year, such potatoes imported from Cyprus, Greece, Spain or Egypt were priced at £1.60-2.30 per kilo. Now the prices of such potatoes are at PLN 2.40-3.00 per kilo. This is a significant difference that will result in less downward pressure on the price of home-grown early potatoes. But will consumers, who are getting poorer as a result of inflation, limit their purchases of these products, which are certainly not basic necessities?