South Africa lowers citrus export forecast for 2026 amid weather and logistics challenges
South Africa has revised its 2026 citrus export forecast downward by 4.1 million cartons to 205.3 million cartons due to adverse weather and trade route disruptions, impacting availability for European importers.
The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) has reduced its citrus export forecast for the 2026 season to 205.3 million cartons (15 kg each), down from the previous estimate of 209.4 million cartons. The main reductions concern mandarins (down 2.7 million cartons), Navel oranges (down 4.6 million cartons), and grapefruit (down 1.7 million cartons). Meanwhile, lemon exports have been revised upward by 5.4 million cartons. The adjustment follows weather-related challenges including heavy rains and floods in both the Western and Eastern Cape, as well as logistical disruptions due to ongoing conflict affecting Middle East shipping routes, which normally absorb 20% of South Africa’s citrus exports.
Packing of early mandarin varieties like Nova and Leanri is complete, with remaining shipments focused on late types such as Orri, Nadorcott, and Tango. For Navel oranges, less than 6 million cartons of late varieties remain to be packed, while Valencia orange packing is reaching its peak and is expected to extend the season. Orange juice processors are absorbing significant volumes. Most lemon regions have finished their season, with only the Eastern Cape—South Africa’s top lemon-producing area—having less than 10% of its crop left to pack.
The CGA highlights that shipping rates and input costs have increased due to the regional conflict, adding pressure to growers and exporters. Port congestion in Durban has also slowed exports. These factors are expected to tighten citrus availability on European markets, including Poland, as South African fruit is a key supplier during the Northern Hemisphere offseason.
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Material prepared by the editorial team of fresh-market.info, editor Artur Spiker · Illustrative image generated by AI