Lemons in Poland are very cheap for now

2021-02-05 11:29

Lemon prices in the Polish wholesale market have remained at a very low level since January this year. In the offers of importers, in the wholesale trade on a larger scale, they are most often offered at 3.00-5.50 PLN per kg, depending on the country of origin, packaging and quality. The offer is dominated by fruit from two countries - Turkey and Spain (the former are usually cheaper).

These are not record low prices, as the average of 4.25 PLN /kg is clearly higher than in January 2011 (3.20 PLN /kg), 2012 (3.40 PLN/kg) and 2014 (3.70PLN/kg), but that was quite a long time ago. In recent years, only January 2019 was cheaper (average 4.00 PLN /kg) and that was for a very short period.

The low prices are the result of a relatively high supply. Much higher than last year. The USDA (US Department of Agriculture) estimates that the 2020/2021 EU lemon harvest will be at 1.6 million tonnes, some 160,000 tonnes higher than last year. Importantly, however, they also estimate an increase in consumption of around 150,000 tonnes with a drop in imports of around 30,000 tonnes. Exports are also expected to increase, but this factor is of little importance in the case of the EU, as annual EU lemon exports are only around 80,000 tonnes and the increase estimated by the USDA for this season is 1,000 tonnes. On the other hand, the processing of lemons is set to shrink by 150 000 tonnes as a result of the pandemic and the closure of the HoReCa food distribution channel in Europe.

Domestic lemons are therefore more available on the European market, plus supplies from Turkey, which is estimated by the USDA to have a bigger harvest (+5%, to 1 million tonnes) and is also present in Europe with its offer (unlike last spring, when Turkish authorities blocked lemon exports due to huge demand).

On the other hand, consumer interest remains lower than during the first wave of the pandemic. Demand is of course not low, but it is lower than the industry expected, which is also reflected in prices.

In the spring, however, price relations on the European market, including in Poland, should begin to change. The supply of lemons from Spain and Turkey will diminish. Argentina is still affected by the European embargo and, moreover, the harvest in Argentina is expected to be 30 per cent smaller. It is likely that lemon prices will go up. Maybe not as sharply as last year, but the shrinking supply will do its job.

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