Will there be too few apples at the end of the season in Poland?
The last week of April brought a fundamental change in the situation on the Polish apple market. There was an air of optimism among fruit growers. Wholesale prices of domestic apples started to rise significantly.
There you can see that the popular "redbuds" have gained around 30 per cent since the end of April and demand for these varieties has strengthened significantly. The least popular varieties so far are Glosters (+27 per cent) and Idareds (+29 per cent). Of course, as in the whole season, the demand is still concentrated on apples of thick calibres. But there is movement throughout the apple market.
What factors have influenced the change in the situation of Polish apples? Certainly, the impulse was the government's decision to financially support the withdrawal of dessert apples and to allocate 200,000 tonnes of such fruit to processing. This created a new perspective for the "dessert" trade for the last months of the season.
Another factor was Belarus' decision to unblock imports of, among others, apples from Poland. This is now official news, confirmed by our Ministry of Agriculture. Demand for apples in Belarus is likely to be considerable, as wholesale prices there have exceeded 4 PLN per kilo, so Polish apples will be very attractive, even at rising prices.
Another upward factor for Polish apple prices is the weather, and this on a European scale. It has been cold so far, which delays vegetation in the new season. In addition, there were frosts in France and Spain, which affected fruit orchards. This will have a major impact at the end of the old season and in the early part of the new season.
What about the information on stocks? WAPA has just published data from 1 April. According to them, stocks in the EU (plus the UK and Switzerland) are 2.2 million tonnes, which means that almost 756,000 tonnes left storage in March. Italy has the most apples with nearly 620,000 tonnes.
source: WAPA data
In Poland, stocks on 1 April were only slightly lower at 617 thousand tonnes, which means that 278 thousand tonnes "went down" in March (more than in March 2021). The question is, are these over 600k tonnes a lot or not?
Firstly, it is worth noticing that a year ago, on 1.04.2021, there were not much less apples, as WAPA data spoke about the volume of 592 thousand tonnes (less than now by 4 per cent). Secondly, let's remember that 200,000 tonnes of dessert apples will be redirected to processing, and this programme has only just started.
Finally, let us bear in mind that the WAPA figures relate to more than a month ago. There are fewer apples now. By how much? By around 180-190 thousand tonnes (in April 2021, 194 thousand tonnes of apples disappeared from Polish warehouses. So on 1 May 2022 there could have been around 430,000 tonnes of apples in Polish cold stores. If we deduct 200,000 tonnes for industry, this leaves 230,000 tonnes for May and June 2022 (not all of which will be available for the fresh market). WAPA estimates that in May and June 2021 Polish apple stocks fell by 265,000 tonnes. This means that at the end of the current season we may have an apple deficit, especially if the weather continues to be capricious.