Apple and pear harvest forecasts for 2024: European Fruit Market Facing New Challenges
Introduction
In the first week of August 2024, the Prognosfruit conference took place, the most important annual event for the apple and pear sector in Europe. This year, the conference was held in Budapest, Hungary. During this meeting, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) published forecasts for the apple and pear harvest for the 2024/2025 season.
Apple Forecasts
The apple production in EU countries that provided data for the report is expected to reach 10.2 million tons, representing a decrease of 11.3% compared to the previous year. This is also 13.6% lower than the average of the last three years. Among the main apple varieties, the production of Golden Delicious is expected to decrease by 10.2% to 1.97 million tons, and the production of Gala variety is projected to decrease by 11.1% to 1.35 million tons. On the other hand, the production of Red Delicious variety is expected to increase by 2.8%, while Idared is projected to decrease by 18.4% compared to the year 2023.
Pear Forecasts
On the other hand, pear production in the EU is expected to increase by 4.9% compared to the previous year's harvest, reaching a level of 1.79 million tons. This growth is due to the recovery of production in Italy, which will increase by 120.5% compared to 2023, despite reductions in Belgium and the Netherlands of 26.6% and 8.7%, respectively. The production of the Conference variety of pears is expected to decrease by 13.5% to 776 thousand tons, while the production of the William BC variety is projected to increase by 33.8%. The production of the Abate Fetel variety is expected to recover to 124,832 tons, representing a growth of 131.8%.
Impact of Weather Conditions
The market balance will be influenced by relatively stable production in the western part of the EU, including in France, Italy, and Spain. However, central and eastern EU regions, such as Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Austria, have been severely affected by poor flowering, late frosts, and hail, leading to lower harvests. As a result, lower apple supply for processing is expected in the 2024/2025 season.
Market Outlook
Despite challenges such as inflation and rising costs, the outlook for the upcoming season is generally positive and should create opportunities for better sector performance. The stability of production in key western EU countries may benefit producers, although unfavorable conditions in Central and Eastern Europe could limit supply.
Summary
The Prognosfruit 2024 conference provided important information on forecasts for the apple and pear harvest for the upcoming season. The reduction in apple production and moderate growth in pear production, combined with climatic and economic challenges, will have a significant impact on the European fruit market. The sector must prepare for changing conditions and seize opportunities to ensure stability and profitability.
Contact
For further information about the Prognosfruit conference and crop forecasts, please contact WAPA:
- Email: wapa@wapa-association.org
- Phone: +32 (0)2 777 15 80
The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) continues its mission of supporting the sector by providing key data and analysis and initiating actions to strengthen the industry.
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