We have an accumulation of apple supply, but...
The second half of July brought a significant increase in the current supply of early varieties of Polish apples. Consequently, the market for these fruits is currently experiencing an accumulation of supply, which is clearly reflected in the prices of early varieties of Polish apples.
Prices of Piros and Paulared dropped at the end of last month in wholesale to the level of 2.00-3.00 PLN/kg, which is approximately 0.47-0.70 EUR/kg. Prices of varieties such as Sander, Delikates, and Celesta are mostly around 3.00 PLN/kg (0.70 EUR/kg). Compared to the same period last year, these are low prices. Around August 6, 2023, the average price of Piros in wholesale was 3.40 PLN/kg (0.79 EUR/kg), and Paulared was 3.75 PLN/kg (0.87 EUR/kg).
As can be seen, prices are lower year on year by an average of 26-33 percent. This is a significant decrease and is undoubtedly the result of the mentioned accumulation of early apple supply, which ripened quickly this year. The question is, will this situation persist for a longer period? Many fruit growers doubt it. They point to the possibility of relatively quick depletion of this supply bottleneck in our wholesale apple market. If Paulared is already sold out now, followed by Delikates, what will happen next? Will the apple market face the same fate as we saw in this year's strawberry season?
Especially considering that this year's apple harvest is not promising. Although the preliminary forecast by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) is not particularly low, indicating a volume of 3.2 million tons, comparable to the harvest in 2019, as shown in our chart below.
However, firstly, many market participants believe that these are overly optimistic forecasts and the harvest will likely be around 3.00 million tons. Secondly, there will be significant issues with the quality of the fruits, which will impact the supply of dessert apples. Additionally, even with a 3.1 million ton harvest in 2019, the initial prices of fruits from the regular September harvest were quite good. Although the first prices in the 2019/2020 campaign were not exceptional, the second half of that season saw Polish apples ending with record high prices (e.g., the average price of Gala 65+ in wholesale was already 3.75 PLN/kg (0.87 EUR/kg) at the beginning of June 2020, Idared had an average price of 3.40 PLN/kg (0.79 EUR/kg) in mid-June 2020, and Golden was at 4.30 PLN/kg (1.00 EUR/kg)).
Of course, since then, there have been significant changes in the global apple market situation, which has evolved unfavorably for the Polish apple sector. But even considering this factor, it seems likely, especially if the more pessimistic harvest forecasts are confirmed, that the second half of the current season should bring relatively high apple prices.