When can bananas become more expensive?

The prices of bananas imported to the European Union from Latin America showed an upward trend in October. However, this mainly occurred in the first half of the month. One of the few countries that continued to experience a rise in import prices was Poland. According to EU data, the average Polish import price for these bananas increased in October from 104 euros/kg to 105 euros/kg.

This translates to the situation in the domestic wholesale market. Selling prices of bananas from Latin America in large-scale wholesale slightly increased recently (+2.7 percent). But, as shown on the chart, they still remain below prices from the previous year and two years ago. Currently, these prices are mostly within the range of 4.17-5.00 PLN/kg.

Of course, the question arises whether this upward trend will continue. Looking at the above chart depicting prices in the Polish wholesale market, we can see that prices were increasing a year ago. On the other hand, two years ago (but at a higher level), we had a temporary dip in these prices, with the upward trend resuming in November.

source: own elaboration based on data from agriculture.ec.europa.eu

On the second chart, illustrating import prices, we marked the increase in banana prices between summer and Christmas Eve in the last three years. It is evident that they vary significantly, although prices from July/August have always been lower than those from December. So, will prices rise this time?

Currently, the most likely scenario is that if an upward trend emerges, it won't be now. Not immediately, but towards Christmas, prices are expected to strengthen further, as seasonal demand growth almost always drives them up. Why do we not anticipate further price increases for bananas now? A clue lies in the behavior of import prices of these fruits in other EU countries. In most of those for which we have EU data, prices in Week 42 were notably lower than in Week 41.