The pressure on plum prices continues.
This year, there are noticeably fewer domestic plums than in previous years, as confirmed by forecasts from the Central Statistical Office (GUS). In the initial estimation, experts from this institution predict that this year's plum production will be just over 106,000 tons.
source: own elaboration based on GUS data
As seen in the chart above, this would be the lowest volume of plum harvests in four years and the third worst result in the last decade. Yet, there is still downward pressure on the prices of Polish plums in the fresh market. This pressure has been evident since the beginning of the season.
The source of this pressure, as we have repeatedly discussed on the fresh-market.pl portal, is imports, especially from outside the EU. Previously, the main source was goods imported from Serbia, but now Moldovan plums dominate the market. It is worth mentioning that the European Commission granted Moldova export privileges in the form of duty-free quotas, including for plums. Additionally, there is the possibility of importing plums from Ukraine, where there is a surplus of these fruits, leading to lower prices.
In such circumstances, it is not surprising that there is pressure for lower prices of Polish plums. How effective has this pricing pressure been so far? In wholesale markets, Polish plum varieties such as Mieszaniec are currently priced between 2.70-4.00 PLN/kg (0.63-0.94 EUR/kg). Varieties like Top Hit or President are priced at 3.00-4.00 PLN/kg (0.70-0.94 EUR/kg), and Węgierki at 2.50-3.50 PLN/kg (0.58-0.82 EUR/kg). However, producers can only expect prices of up to 4.00 PLN/kg (0.94 EUR/kg) for truly premium fruits - large and firm plums.
Overall, these prices are already lower than last year, although it should be noted that last year the season started late. The largest price drop occurred in early September, with the lowest prices reaching 2.50-3.00 PLN/kg (0.58-0.70 EUR/kg) depending on the variety. We will see what this year's September brings.
Assessing the price situation in the plum market, it can be said that the downward price pressure generated by imports has been partially effective. However, the fact that this year's domestic plum harvests are low has had an impact on price realities and prevented a deeper price reduction in the local plum market.