Will the watermelons get cheaper?

The last few days have brought a decrease in the average price of watermelons offered on a larger scale. The price range of these fruits has shifted from 1.30-3.00 PLN/kg (0.30-0.70 EUR/kg) to 1.40-2.80 PLN/kg (0.33-0.65 EUR/kg). This represents a modest decrease of 2.3 percent. Not much. Could such a slight price reduction be a harbinger of a downward trend?

After all, current watermelon prices are higher than the quite high prices from the same period last year, and in a broader context, they are higher than at the same point in each of the last five seasons. Only in September 2022, we had a noticeable peak in prices in this market, as can be seen in the graph below.

Compared to the average of the previous five years, current prices are nearly 10 percent higher. This would create room for a continuation of the decline in watermelon prices this season. But it must be remembered that September is already a period in which current watermelon harvests in Europe clearly diminish. Our chart shows that a downward price trend in September in this market is rare. If prices did fall, it was brief and not by much.

This season is unlikely to deviate from this rule. Even with exceptionally favorable weather, a sustained downward trend is unlikely, although another downward correction is not ruled out. And with warm weather, quite probable.