How much will the price of white cabbage drop?

Almost exactly a year ago, we wrote on the pages of the fresh-market.pl portal about the difficult days ahead for white cabbage producers in Poland (here). We emphasized that the current prices of this vegetable were significantly low despite the fact that the harvest was weaker than in previous years. In the current season, the harvest is even lower, although the year-on-year difference is not as huge as before. According to the latest GUS forecasts, there is a decrease of nearly 5 percent compared to the previous year. The current forecast is slightly better than the one from July (an improvement of 5 thousand tons). Nevertheless, compared to previous years, there will be a shortage of cabbage. But, as the 2023/2024 season showed, low supply does not automatically mean record high prices, especially in the autumn during the harvest season. So, what about this season? For now, white cabbage in the Polish wholesale market is holding up quite well in terms of prices, still more expensive than in previous years. Currently, selling prices are mostly in the range of 1.20-1.50 PLN per kg for fresh market goods (in bags). So, should we expect a fall in prices this autumn? Such declines are seasonal and usually occur. Exceptions are seasons when prices start very low, and there is no much room for further decline. This year, prices are high, leaving room for a seasonal drop. Therefore, the scenario of a seasonal, autumnal price fall is very likely. The question remains, what will be the extent of this decrease. In recent days, we have already seen a correction (of 7 percent) and an increase in cabbage prices. Considering the market trends, some continuation is to be expected. This is also suggested by the industrial cabbage market, where prices have typically dropped from around 1 PLN to 0.80 PLN per kg, and recently there have been more offers at 0.60, and even 0.50 PLN per kg. Some are in a hurry, probably due to the quality of the goods, as many farmers have reported significant issues this year. These problems also affect prices in the fresh market, pulling down the whole market. However, looking at cabbage prices in the longer term, it seems that this year's seasonal price decline should not be deep and should not last long. In the previous season, although cabbage prices were under pressure in the autumn and almost reached the long-term average level in December 2023, there was a significant price increase at the beginning of January 2024. This year, prices should rise noticeably.