When will the prices of white cabbage drop?

Prices of white cabbage in the domestic large wholesale market remained relatively stable in August. In the second half of the current month, they even slightly improved. Recently, there was a downward correction, but only by 4 percent, and the average selling price in the large wholesale market is now at the same level as at the beginning of this month.

Currently, these prices are mostly in the range of 1.10-1.40 PLN/kg (0.26-0.33 EUR/kg) for cabbage in bags intended for the fresh market. This gives an average of 1.25 PLN/kg (0.29 EUR/kg). This is, admittedly, 7 percent (-0.10 PLN/kg, -0.02 EUR/kg) less compared to the previous year, but still 23 percent more than the average of the previous five seasons (+0.23 PLN/kg, +0.05 EUR/kg). We can see these relationships on the chart below.

At this stage of the campaign, the question arises of when white cabbage in the Polish wholesale market will start to become cheaper. We are approaching the main period of autumn harvest of this vegetable. Supply will inevitably increase. But is the cabbage market really destined for price declines this autumn? Let's recall the forecasts for this year's harvest compared to production in previous years.

source: own elaboration based on GUS data

There is expected to be very little cabbage (of all varieties) this season. This will be the main factor shaping the situation in the coming months. Nevertheless, the scenario of price stability at the current level is still less likely than the scenario of their seasonal decline during the autumn. It may be a situation similar to autumn 2022, when the average price in the large wholesale market fell below one złoty per kilogram only for one week in November and for the last week of December, during the Christmas trading break.