The prices of carrots are not falling, but...

Young carrots from this year's harvest in Poland experienced a decrease in wholesale prices in both June and July. The decrease was quite dynamic, as the average selling price in large wholesale markets dropped by two-thirds over these two months. As a result, the regular season for Polish carrots began in August at a relatively low price level.

Despite the fact that the downward trend in wholesale prices for this vegetable was halted towards the end of July, there was even an upward correction. Currently, the selling prices for washed and bagged Polish carrots in large wholesale markets range mostly between 1.00-1.40 PLN/kg, which is approximately 0.23-0.33 EUR/kg. As shown in the first chart, this price level is low, below the average of the previous five years. However, since the chart includes high prices from spring 2023, the initial period is somewhat unclear. Therefore, let's look at chart 2, which only includes carrot prices in large wholesale markets up to the end of December.

Here, the price relationships at the start of each campaign are clearer. The current average price is not only lower than the multi-year average (-3 percent) but also lower than that of the same period in the previous season (-4 percent). This may raise concerns among producers, especially in light of GUS's estimated data on carrot harvests, which are compared to production data from previous years.

source: own elaboration based on GUS data

Harvests are projected to be lower than last year, although the difference in this forecast is not significant (-0.9 percent). However, it is worth noting that these are expected to be the worst harvests in the entire period since 2015. Additionally, this is a preliminary estimate based on data no later than the beginning of July. The later period was not easy for vegetable crops. On the contrary. This is evident, for example, in the aforementioned halt in the downward price trend.

Let's look at the price charts again - at the beginning of last year's season, we had a similar average price level as we have now. However, due to challenging weather conditions during the growing season, the price reality significantly improved for producers. Prices stabilized in September last year, and began to increase rapidly in November. With similar harvests as last year, could we see a repeat of the price scenario from that time?