Celery don't want to become cheaper.

Wholesale prices of celery in Poland have been consistently higher than in previous years, but until the end of last week, they remained in the typical seasonal trend. Only during the first week of August, the average selling price of washed and bagged celery in large wholesale decreased by almost 17 percent.

However, as seen in our chart, this typical seasonal downward trend associated with increased supply has now been halted. There is even an upward correction, and currently the selling prices of washed celery in large wholesale are between 3.50-4.50 PLN/kg (0.82-1.05 EUR/kg), with an average of 4.00 PLN/kg (0.93 EUR/kg), up by 7 percent compared to last week.

At this stage of the season, this is an atypical phenomenon. The question is whether the halt in price declines will last for a longer time. Undoubtedly, it is caused by supply issues. Celery is another field vegetable that, according to GUS forecasts, will see a decrease in harvest volume this year (to 101 thousand tons, or -4.7 percent year on year). As shown in the second chart, the decrease is even greater compared to the high production of 2022 (-8.9 percent).

source: own elaboration based on GUS data

The question is whether this decrease in harvest explains the current record prices and the halt in their seasonal decline? Three years ago, as also shown in the second chart, the harvest was almost the same as the current forecast, yet prices and their trend did not deviate from the pattern. Perhaps the coming weeks and months will somewhat stabilize the celery market situation.

The current supply problems and high prices are the result of very unfavorable agrometeorological conditions in July and earlier. If the weather normalizes, the downward trend will quickly return, although most likely average prices will remain above the long-term average.