Onion - are prices going down or rather up?

So far, prices of bagged Polish onions in wholesale remain significantly below the average from the previous five seasons. The difference has been narrowing in the past few weeks, but it still falls short of that average by 0.10 PLN/kg, which is close to 8 percent. This is mainly due to a significant increase in onion cultivation area this year, resulting in high yields despite lower productivity.

Currently, onion prices in bags in wholesale mostly range between 1.00-1.40 PLN/kg. The onion market is entering a crucial period, as indicated in the above chart. If the upward trend in onion prices observed since August continues during this period, it would suggest a growing belief in the market that there won't be as much late-season high-quality onions available, even with imports considered. In that case, the current price curve will follow the path set by the five-year average.

However, if sentiments change, possibly influenced by news from abroad, the upward trend could be interrupted, leading to a scenario similar to that five years ago - during the 2019/2020 campaign when prices rose initially but then reversed in the long term, declining until March.

The developments in the coming weeks will be a critical indication of what to expect in onion prices from December possibly until March next year. Sustaining an increase, even with low momentum, provides reasons for optimism.

News of successful Dutch exports to Africa would certainly support such a scenario as it would reduce Dutch pressure on the European market. Currently, the situation is okay in this regard, but not very strong. Positive developments from the East also favor this scenario. In Ukraine and Moldova, onion prices are at similar or slightly higher levels compared to last year. In Ukraine, the average price is 0.27 USD/kg, and in Moldova, it is 0.28 USD/kg. However, in Central Asia, where there is more onion available, prices are lower than last year. In Uzbekistan, it is 0.10 USD/kg, compared to 0.18 USD/kg last year (source: east-fruit.com).