Will potato prices start rising quickly?
The situation on the national wholesale potato market is developing in a very unfavorable scenario from the producers' point of view. Potatoes in the regular season of 2024/2025 entered in early August with relatively low prices. In large quantities, prices ranged from 0.67-1.20 PLN/kg (0.16-0.28 EUR/kg) for bagged and calibrated yellow and red potatoes. White potatoes had prices of 1.00-1.50 PLN/kg (0.23-0.35 EUR/kg).
Only the latter remained at a stable price level. This is a specific market, limited regionally and consequently governed by slightly different rules than the national market. Meanwhile, yellow potatoes fell to 0.60-0.87 PLN/kg (0.14-0.20 EUR/kg), a decrease of 21 percent, and red potatoes to 0.67-1.00 PLN/kg (0.16-0.23 EUR/kg), mostly by 11 percent.
As seen on our chart, prices were lower than the average of the previous five years at the beginning of August, although the difference was minimal at that time: 1 grosz per kilogram (approximately 0.002 EUR). Now we have a difference of up to 14 groszy per kilogram (approximately 0.03 EUR), representing a decrease of 16 percent.
Therefore, things are not looking good in a season with significant challenges in potato production. In a season where average yields are unlikely to be high. Unfortunately, the current supply of potatoes is too high compared to the demand. According to prevailing market participants' opinions, this is due to the fact that many farmers have entered the market who did not previously grow potatoes commercially. Encouraged by last year's prices, they decided to try their luck, and now they have no outlets for their goods, creating significant price pressure.
However, there is a scenario on the horizon that foresees a relatively rapid improvement in this situation. Everything indicates that (for reasons similar to ours - difficult weather conditions, primarily drought) potato yields in the Balkans will be low. Importers from that region of Europe have already appeared on the Polish market. Information is also coming from NEPG countries that major producers such as Germany, France, or Belgium will also not have high yields.
Most likely, even here, potato volumes from the main harvest will be far from records. Will it be more than in the disastrous year 2023? We will have to wait for this information for about another month and a half. But in the perspective of the following months, when the temporary oversupply of potatoes from early plantings will decrease in the market (here, year-on-year growth was the highest), and demand will strengthen in exports to the south, prices should have a chance to improve.