Tomatoes - we have a repeat of last year's scenario.

Recently, we have observed rapid changes in supply and prices of tomatoes in the Polish wholesale market. Initially, these fluctuations were seen locally in a small wholesale market for greenhouse-grown red tomatoes. However, in the past few days, this dynamic price increase has spread across the entire national trade of these vegetables.

Currently, the selling prices of these tomatoes in large wholesale markets (packaged) range from 9.50-10.16 PLN/kg depending on the size. Grade A tomatoes are priced between 9.50-9.83 PLN/kg, while Grade B tomatoes are priced between 9.66-10.00 PLN/kg most commonly. This signifies an average increase of up to 127 percent over the past month.

As seen in our chart, the situation in the wholesale market for red greenhouse tomatoes is evolving very similarly to last year's price scenario. Last year also saw a sudden price surge in October. However, last year this initial October price increase was short-lived, and prices then significantly dropped. Will this be the case this year as well?

The key factor will be the weather. Warm and sunny weather will favor an improvement in the supply of greenhouse tomatoes. Another factor is import prices. If imported tomatoes become cheaper in the coming weeks, this will exert pressure on domestic prices. This was the case last year. If the downward trend in tomato prices in the Mediterranean basin (Spain being the most important for Poland, but also Morocco) is delayed this time, the end of the domestic season in large wholesale markets may not experience as significant a price reduction as in the previous season.